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Sodupe vs Real Sociedad III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Sodupe
Sodupe
CANC
22:00
Real Sociedad III
Real Sociedad III
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 37Campo Lorenzo Hurtado de Saratxo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sodupe37%
×Draw26%
Real Sociedad III37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sodupe
1.34
Real Sociedad III
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 44 away

creates per match

Sodupe
1.17
Real Sociedad III
1.66

allows per match

Sodupe
1.03
Real Sociedad III
1.52

finishing

Sodupe+0.00on par
Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sodupe ↓

Real Sociedad III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sodupe or draw
63%
Sodupe or Real Sociedad III
74%
Draw or Real Sociedad III
63%

Winning margin

Sodupe wins by 2+
17%
Real Sociedad III wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sodupe 1+ goals
74%
Sodupe 2+ goals
39%
Sodupe 3+ goals
15%
Real Sociedad III 1+ goals
74%
Real Sociedad III 2+ goals
39%
Real Sociedad III 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sodupe (draw refunded)
50%
Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sodupe at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Real Sociedad III away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sodupe attack 1.17 + Real Sociedad III defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.34

Real Sociedad III attack 1.66 + Sodupe defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sodupe scores more
37%
level
26%
Real Sociedad III scores more
37%

Sodupe at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sodupe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sodupe face Real Sociedad III (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 returns with Sodupe hosting Real Sociedad III. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sodupe host Real Sociedad III at Campo Lorenzo Hurtado de Saratxo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.