Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1–2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

11/26/2015

League #301 · Round 8Maktoum Bin Rashid al Maktoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai38%

×Draw25%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shabab Al Ahli DubaiExpected goals in this matchShabab Al Ahli Dubai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.45

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.46

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.11

creates per match

2.00

0.89

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

2.11

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

2.00

allows per match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

0.89

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai ↓

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or draw

63%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

75%

Draw or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

62%

Winning margin

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai wins by 2+

18%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1+ goals

77%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2+ goals

43%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3+ goals

18%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1+ goals

77%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2+ goals

42%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw refunded)

50%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 2.11 + Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.46

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 2.00 + Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scores more

38%

level

25%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scores more

37%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.