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Socuéllamos vs Villarrobledo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Socuéllamos
Socuéllamos
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Villarrobledo
Villarrobledo
9/8/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 1Estadio Paquito Jiménez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Socuéllamos57%
×Draw25%
Villarrobledo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Socuéllamos
1.62
Villarrobledo
0.80

Socuéllamos creates 102% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 83 away

creates per match

Socuéllamos
1.88
Villarrobledo
0.88

allows per match

Socuéllamos
0.73
Villarrobledo
1.36

finishing

Socuéllamos+0.00on par
Villarrobledo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Socuéllamos ↓

Villarrobledo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Socuéllamos or draw
82%
Socuéllamos or Villarrobledo
75%
Draw or Villarrobledo
43%

Winning margin

Socuéllamos wins by 2+
31%
Villarrobledo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Socuéllamos 1+ goals
80%
Socuéllamos 2+ goals
48%
Socuéllamos 3+ goals
22%
Villarrobledo 1+ goals
55%
Villarrobledo 2+ goals
19%
Villarrobledo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Socuéllamos (draw refunded)
76%
Villarrobledo (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Socuéllamos at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.73 · 48 matches

Villarrobledo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.36 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Socuéllamos attack 1.88 + Villarrobledo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.62

Villarrobledo attack 0.88 + Socuéllamos defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Socuéllamos scores more
57%
level
25%
Villarrobledo scores more
18%

Socuéllamos at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Socuéllamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Socuéllamos vs Villarrobledo

Socuéllamos and Villarrobledo drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Paquito Jiménez in Socuéllamos.