Socuéllamos 3–0 Valdepeñas: Result & Stats

Socuéllamos

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Valdepeñas

3/23/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 27Estadio Paquito Jiménez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Socuéllamos64%

×Draw24%

Valdepeñas12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SocuéllamosExpected goals in this matchValdepeñas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.57

Socuéllamos

1.67

Valdepeñas

0.57

Socuéllamos creates 193% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

1.88

creates per match

0.41

0.73

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Socuéllamos

1.88

Valdepeñas

0.41

allows per match

Socuéllamos

0.73

Valdepeñas

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Socuéllamos+0.00on par

Valdepeñas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Socuéllamos ↓

Valdepeñas →

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Socuéllamos or draw

88%

Socuéllamos or Valdepeñas

76%

Draw or Valdepeñas

36%

Winning margin

Socuéllamos wins by 2+

36%

Valdepeñas wins by 2+

Team goals

Socuéllamos 1+ goals

81%

Socuéllamos 2+ goals

50%

Socuéllamos 3+ goals

23%

Valdepeñas 1+ goals

43%

Valdepeñas 2+ goals

11%

Valdepeñas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Socuéllamos (draw refunded)

84%

Valdepeñas (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Socuéllamos at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.73 · 48 matches

Valdepeñas away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Socuéllamos attack 1.88 + Valdepeñas defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.67

Valdepeñas attack 0.41 + Socuéllamos defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Socuéllamos scores more

64%

level

24%

Valdepeñas scores more

12%

Socuéllamos at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Socuéllamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Socuéllamos 3–0 Valdepeñas

Socuéllamos beat Valdepeñas 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Paquito Jiménez in Socuéllamos.

Socuéllamos vs Valdepeñas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Socuéllamos 3–0 Valdepeñas