Socuéllamos 2–0 Manchego: Result & Stats

Socuéllamos

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Manchego

9/8/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 3Estadio Paquito Jiménez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Socuéllamos50%

×Draw27%

Manchego23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SocuéllamosExpected goals in this matchManchego

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.89

Socuéllamos

1.44

Manchego

0.89

Socuéllamos creates 62% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 94 away

1.88

creates per match

1.05

0.73

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Socuéllamos

1.88

Manchego

1.05

allows per match

Socuéllamos

0.73

Manchego

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Socuéllamos+0.00on par

Manchego+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Socuéllamos ↓

Manchego →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Socuéllamos or draw

77%

Socuéllamos or Manchego

73%

Draw or Manchego

50%

Winning margin

Socuéllamos wins by 2+

25%

Manchego wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Socuéllamos 1+ goals

76%

Socuéllamos 2+ goals

42%

Socuéllamos 3+ goals

18%

Manchego 1+ goals

59%

Manchego 2+ goals

22%

Manchego 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Socuéllamos (draw refunded)

68%

Manchego (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Socuéllamos at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.73 · 48 matches

Manchego away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.01 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Socuéllamos attack 1.88 + Manchego defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.44

Manchego attack 1.05 + Socuéllamos defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Socuéllamos scores more

50%

level

27%

Manchego scores more

23%

Socuéllamos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Socuéllamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff