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Socuéllamos vs Conquense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Socuéllamos
Socuéllamos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Conquense
Conquense
4/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 28Estadio Paquito Jiménez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Socuéllamos46%
×Draw27%
Conquense26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Socuéllamos
1.38
Conquense
0.97

Socuéllamos creates 42% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 76 away

creates per match

Socuéllamos
1.88
Conquense
1.22

allows per match

Socuéllamos
0.73
Conquense
0.87

finishing

Socuéllamos+0.00on par
Conquense+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Socuéllamos ↓

Conquense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Socuéllamos or draw
74%
Socuéllamos or Conquense
73%
Draw or Conquense
54%

Winning margin

Socuéllamos wins by 2+
22%
Conquense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Socuéllamos 1+ goals
75%
Socuéllamos 2+ goals
40%
Socuéllamos 3+ goals
16%
Conquense 1+ goals
62%
Conquense 2+ goals
25%
Conquense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Socuéllamos (draw refunded)
64%
Conquense (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Socuéllamos at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.73 · 48 matches

Conquense away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Socuéllamos attack 1.88 + Conquense defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.38

Conquense attack 1.22 + Socuéllamos defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Socuéllamos scores more
46%
level
27%
Conquense scores more
26%

Socuéllamos at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Socuéllamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Socuéllamos 2–1 Conquense

Socuéllamos beat Conquense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Paquito Jiménez in Socuéllamos.