Socuéllamos 2–1 Calvo Sotelo: Result & Stats

Socuéllamos

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Calvo Sotelo

1/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 16Estadio Paquito Jiménez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Socuéllamos51%

×Draw26%

Calvo Sotelo22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SocuéllamosExpected goals in this matchCalvo Sotelo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.87

Socuéllamos

1.48

Calvo Sotelo

0.87

Socuéllamos creates 70% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 93 away

1.88

creates per match

1.01

0.73

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Socuéllamos

1.88

Calvo Sotelo

1.01

allows per match

Socuéllamos

0.73

Calvo Sotelo

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Socuéllamos+0.00on par

Calvo Sotelo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Socuéllamos ↓

Calvo Sotelo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Socuéllamos or draw

78%

Socuéllamos or Calvo Sotelo

74%

Draw or Calvo Sotelo

49%

Winning margin

Socuéllamos wins by 2+

26%

Calvo Sotelo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Socuéllamos 1+ goals

77%

Socuéllamos 2+ goals

43%

Socuéllamos 3+ goals

19%

Calvo Sotelo 1+ goals

58%

Calvo Sotelo 2+ goals

22%

Calvo Sotelo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Socuéllamos (draw refunded)

70%

Calvo Sotelo (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Socuéllamos at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.73 · 48 matches

Calvo Sotelo away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Socuéllamos attack 1.88 + Calvo Sotelo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.48

Calvo Sotelo attack 1.01 + Socuéllamos defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Socuéllamos scores more

51%

level

26%

Calvo Sotelo scores more

22%

Socuéllamos at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Socuéllamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff