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Socuéllamos vs Atlético Ibañés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Socuéllamos
Socuéllamos
CANC
00:00
Atlético Ibañés
Atlético Ibañés
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 32Estadio Paquito Jiménez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Socuéllamos52%
×Draw26%
Atlético Ibañés22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Socuéllamos
1.52
Atlético Ibañés
0.90

Socuéllamos creates 69% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 30 away

creates per match

Socuéllamos
1.88
Atlético Ibañés
1.07

allows per match

Socuéllamos
0.73
Atlético Ibañés
1.17

finishing

Socuéllamos+0.00on par
Atlético Ibañés+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Socuéllamos ↓

Atlético Ibañés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Socuéllamos or draw
78%
Socuéllamos or Atlético Ibañés
74%
Draw or Atlético Ibañés
48%

Winning margin

Socuéllamos wins by 2+
27%
Atlético Ibañés wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Socuéllamos 1+ goals
78%
Socuéllamos 2+ goals
45%
Socuéllamos 3+ goals
20%
Atlético Ibañés 1+ goals
59%
Atlético Ibañés 2+ goals
23%
Atlético Ibañés 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Socuéllamos (draw refunded)
70%
Atlético Ibañés (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Socuéllamos at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.73 · 48 matches

Atlético Ibañés away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Socuéllamos attack 1.88 + Atlético Ibañés defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.52

Atlético Ibañés attack 1.07 + Socuéllamos defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Socuéllamos scores more
52%
level
26%
Atlético Ibañés scores more
22%

Socuéllamos at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Socuéllamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Socuéllamos host Atlético Ibañés

April 5, 2020: Socuéllamos take on Atlético Ibañés in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Socuéllamos host Atlético Ibañés at Estadio Paquito Jiménez.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.