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Socuéllamos vs Almagro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Socuéllamos
Socuéllamos
CANC
00:00
Almagro
Almagro
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 34Estadio Paquito Jiménez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Socuéllamos67%
×Draw21%
Almagro13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Socuéllamos
1.94
Almagro
0.70

Socuéllamos creates 177% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 29 away

creates per match

Socuéllamos
1.88
Almagro
0.66

allows per match

Socuéllamos
0.73
Almagro
2.00

finishing

Socuéllamos+0.00on par
Almagro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Socuéllamos ↓

Almagro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Socuéllamos or draw
87%
Socuéllamos or Almagro
79%
Draw or Almagro
33%

Winning margin

Socuéllamos wins by 2+
41%
Almagro wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Socuéllamos 1+ goals
86%
Socuéllamos 2+ goals
58%
Socuéllamos 3+ goals
30%
Almagro 1+ goals
50%
Almagro 2+ goals
16%
Almagro 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Socuéllamos (draw refunded)
84%
Almagro (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Socuéllamos at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.73 · 48 matches

Almagro away — creates 0.66, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Socuéllamos attack 1.88 + Almagro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Almagro attack 0.66 + Socuéllamos defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Socuéllamos scores more
67%
level
21%
Almagro scores more
13%

Socuéllamos at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Socuéllamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Socuéllamos face Almagro (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 returns with Socuéllamos hosting Almagro. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Socuéllamos host Almagro at Estadio Paquito Jiménez.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.