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Socol Copceac vs Spartanii Selemet — Cupa 2020

Socol Copceac
Socol Copceac
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spartanii Selemet
Spartanii Selemet
S. Calmîș 90+1'
V. Sacalî 67'
8/29/2020CupaCupa · 2nd RoundStadionul Copceac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Socol Copceac46%
×Draw21%
Spartanii Selemet32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Socol Copceac
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.71

Socol Copceac creates 21% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Socol Copceac
2.00
Spartanii Selemet
1.43

allows per match

Socol Copceac
2.00
Spartanii Selemet
2.14

finishing

Socol Copceac+0.00on par
Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Socol Copceac ↓

Spartanii Selemet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Socol Copceac or draw
68%
Socol Copceac or Spartanii Selemet
79%
Draw or Spartanii Selemet
54%

Winning margin

Socol Copceac wins by 2+
26%
Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Socol Copceac 1+ goals
87%
Socol Copceac 2+ goals
61%
Socol Copceac 3+ goals
34%
Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals
82%
Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals
51%
Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Socol Copceac (draw refunded)
59%
Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Socol Copceac at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Spartanii Selemet away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Socol Copceac attack 2.00 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.07

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.43 + Socol Copceac defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Socol Copceac scores more
46%
level
21%
Spartanii Selemet scores more
32%

Socol Copceac at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Socol Copceac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'
V. Sacalî
90+1'
S. Calmîș

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Socol Copceac 2–0 Spartanii Selemet

Socol Copceac beat Spartanii Selemet 2-0 in Cupa on August 29, 2020.

Goals: V. Sacalî (67'), S. Calmîș (90+1').

The match was played at Stadionul Copceac in Copceac.