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Socol Copceac vs FC Stăuceni — Cupa 2020

Socol Copceac
Socol Copceac
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
FC Stăuceni
FC Stăuceni
9/24/2024CupaCupa · 1st RoundStadionul Copceac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Socol Copceac40%
×Draw20%
FC Stăuceni40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Socol Copceac
2.11
FC Stăuceni
2.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Socol Copceac
2.00
FC Stăuceni
2.22

allows per match

Socol Copceac
2.00
FC Stăuceni
2.22

finishing

Socol Copceac+0.00on par
FC Stăuceni+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Socol Copceac ↓

FC Stăuceni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Socol Copceac or draw
60%
Socol Copceac or FC Stăuceni
80%
Draw or FC Stăuceni
60%

Winning margin

Socol Copceac wins by 2+
22%
FC Stăuceni wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Socol Copceac 1+ goals
88%
Socol Copceac 2+ goals
62%
Socol Copceac 3+ goals
35%
FC Stăuceni 1+ goals
88%
FC Stăuceni 2+ goals
62%
FC Stăuceni 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Socol Copceac (draw refunded)
50%
FC Stăuceni (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Socol Copceac at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

FC Stăuceni away — creates 2.22, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Socol Copceac attack 2.00 + FC Stăuceni defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.11

FC Stăuceni attack 2.22 + Socol Copceac defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Socol Copceac scores more
40%
level
20%
FC Stăuceni scores more
40%

Socol Copceac at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Socol Copceac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Socol Copceac vs FC Stăuceni

FC Stăuceni beat Socol Copceac 6-1 in Cupa on September 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Copceac in Copceac.