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Sochi U20 vs UOR №5 U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Sochi U20
Sochi U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
UOR №5 U20
UOR №5 U20
4/28/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 7Trenirovochnaja Ploshhadka Adler 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Sochi U2055%
×Draw21%
UOR №5 U2024%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sochi U20
2.10
UOR №5 U20
1.34

Sochi U20 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 65 away

creates per match

Sochi U20
1.58
UOR №5 U20
1.40

allows per match

Sochi U20
1.29
UOR №5 U20
2.63

finishing

Sochi U20+0.00on par
UOR №5 U20+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochi U20 ↓

UOR №5 U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sochi U20 or draw
76%
Sochi U20 or UOR №5 U20
79%
Draw or UOR №5 U20
45%

Winning margin

Sochi U20 wins by 2+
33%
UOR №5 U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sochi U20 1+ goals
88%
Sochi U20 2+ goals
62%
Sochi U20 3+ goals
35%
UOR №5 U20 1+ goals
74%
UOR №5 U20 2+ goals
39%
UOR №5 U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sochi U20 (draw refunded)
69%
UOR №5 U20 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochi U20 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 93 matches

UOR №5 U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.63 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochi U20 attack 1.58 + UOR №5 U20 defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.10

UOR №5 U20 attack 1.40 + Sochi U20 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sochi U20 scores more
55%
level
21%
UOR №5 U20 scores more
24%

Sochi U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sochi U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Sochi U20 1–1 UOR №5 U20

Sochi U20 and UOR №5 U20 drew 1-1 in Youth Championship on April 28, 2023.

The match was played at Trenirovochnaja Ploshhadka Adler 1 in Sochi.