Sochi U20 2–2 Torpedo Moskva U19: Result & Stats

Sochi U20

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Torpedo Moskva U19

D. Rubanov 65'

A. Deryugin 64'

M. Syshchenko 90+2'

G. Bizin 90'

3/10/2023

Youth Championship · Lower Table Round - 1Trenirovochnaja Ploshhadka Adler 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sochi U2055%

×Draw24%

Torpedo Moskva U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sochi U20Expected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.97

Sochi U20

1.72

Torpedo Moskva U19

0.97

Sochi U20 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 14 away

1.58

creates per match

0.64

1.29

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Sochi U20

1.58

Torpedo Moskva U19

0.64

allows per match

Sochi U20

1.29

Torpedo Moskva U19

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sochi U20+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochi U20 ↓

Torpedo Moskva U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sochi U20 or draw

79%

Sochi U20 or Torpedo Moskva U19

76%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva U19

45%

Winning margin

Sochi U20 wins by 2+

30%

Torpedo Moskva U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sochi U20 1+ goals

82%

Sochi U20 2+ goals

51%

Sochi U20 3+ goals

25%

Torpedo Moskva U19 1+ goals

62%

Torpedo Moskva U19 2+ goals

25%

Torpedo Moskva U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sochi U20 (draw refunded)

72%

Torpedo Moskva U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochi U20 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 93 matches

Torpedo Moskva U19 away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochi U20 attack 1.58 + Torpedo Moskva U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.72

Torpedo Moskva U19 attack 0.64 + Sochi U20 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sochi U20 scores more

55%

level

24%

Torpedo Moskva U19 scores more

21%

Sochi U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sochi U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

A. Deryugin

65'

D. Rubanov

90'

G. Bizin

90+2'

M. Syshchenko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff