Sochi U20 0–0 Rostov U19: Result & Stats

Sochi U20

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rostov U19

11/1/2024

Youth Championship · Championship Round - 9Akademii FK Sochi pole № 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Sochi U2034%

×Draw24%

Rostov U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sochi U20Expected goals in this matchRostov U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.63

Sochi U20

1.45

Rostov U19

1.63

Rostov U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 77 away

1.58

creates per match

1.96

1.29

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sochi U20

1.58

Rostov U19

1.96

allows per match

Sochi U20

1.29

Rostov U19

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sochi U20+0.00on par

Rostov U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochi U20 ↓

Rostov U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sochi U20 or draw

58%

Sochi U20 or Rostov U19

76%

Draw or Rostov U19

66%

Winning margin

Sochi U20 wins by 2+

16%

Rostov U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sochi U20 1+ goals

77%

Sochi U20 2+ goals

42%

Sochi U20 3+ goals

18%

Rostov U19 1+ goals

80%

Rostov U19 2+ goals

48%

Rostov U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sochi U20 (draw refunded)

45%

Rostov U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochi U20 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 93 matches

Rostov U19 away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.32 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochi U20 attack 1.58 + Rostov U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Rostov U19 attack 1.96 + Sochi U20 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sochi U20 scores more

34%

level

24%

Rostov U19 scores more

42%

Rostov U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rostov U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff