Sochi II 2–0 Rostov II: Result & Stats

Sochi II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rostov II

8/30/2025

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sochi II41%

×Draw27%

Rostov II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sochi IIExpected goals in this matchRostov II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.16

Sochi II

1.33

Rostov II

1.16

Sochi II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 42 away

1.41

creates per match

1.55

0.76

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sochi II

1.41

Rostov II

1.55

allows per match

Sochi II

0.76

Rostov II

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sochi II+0.00on par

Rostov II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochi II ↓

Rostov II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sochi II or draw

68%

Sochi II or Rostov II

73%

Draw or Rostov II

59%

Winning margin

Sochi II wins by 2+

19%

Rostov II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sochi II 1+ goals

74%

Sochi II 2+ goals

38%

Sochi II 3+ goals

15%

Rostov II 1+ goals

69%

Rostov II 2+ goals

32%

Rostov II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sochi II (draw refunded)

56%

Rostov II (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochi II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Rostov II away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochi II attack 1.41 + Rostov II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rostov II attack 1.55 + Sochi II defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sochi II scores more

41%

level

27%

Rostov II scores more

32%

Sochi II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sochi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff