Sochi II 0–1 Dinamo Stavropol: Result & Stats

Sochi II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Stavropol

6/7/2025

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Akademia FK Sochi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sochi II46%

×Draw27%

Dinamo Stavropol27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sochi IIExpected goals in this matchDinamo Stavropol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.99

Sochi II

1.40

Dinamo Stavropol

0.99

Sochi II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 92 away

1.41

creates per match

1.22

0.76

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Sochi II

1.41

Dinamo Stavropol

1.22

allows per match

Sochi II

0.76

Dinamo Stavropol

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sochi II+0.00on par

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochi II ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sochi II or draw

73%

Sochi II or Dinamo Stavropol

73%

Draw or Dinamo Stavropol

54%

Winning margin

Sochi II wins by 2+

22%

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sochi II 1+ goals

75%

Sochi II 2+ goals

41%

Sochi II 3+ goals

17%

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals

63%

Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals

26%

Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sochi II (draw refunded)

64%

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochi II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.39 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochi II attack 1.41 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.22 + Sochi II defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sochi II scores more

46%

level

27%

Dinamo Stavropol scores more

27%

Sochi II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sochi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff