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Sochaux vs Rennes — Coupe de France 2018

Sochaux
Sochaux
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Rennes
Rennesadvanced
2/6/2024Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 16Stade Auguste-Bonal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sochaux25%
×Draw22%
Rennes52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sochaux
1.28
Rennes
1.92

Rennes creates 50% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sochaux
1.50
Rennes
2.00

allows per match

Sochaux
1.83
Rennes
1.06

finishing

Sochaux+0.00on par
Rennes+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochaux ↓

Rennes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sochaux or draw
48%
Sochaux or Rennes
78%
Draw or Rennes
75%

Winning margin

Sochaux wins by 2+
11%
Rennes wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Sochaux 1+ goals
72%
Sochaux 2+ goals
37%
Sochaux 3+ goals
14%
Rennes 1+ goals
85%
Rennes 2+ goals
57%
Rennes 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Sochaux (draw refunded)
33%
Rennes (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochaux at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Rennes away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochaux attack 1.50 + Rennes defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.28

Rennes attack 2.00 + Sochaux defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sochaux scores more
25%
level
22%
Rennes scores more
52%

Rennes at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rennes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sochaux vs Rennes

Rennes beat Sochaux 6-1 in Coupe de France on February 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Auguste-Bonal in Montbéliard.