Sochaux 1–0 Nantes: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Sochaux

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nantes

S. Sunzu 45'

2/1/2014

Ligue 1 · Round 23Stade Auguste-Bonal (Montbéliard)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Sochaux44%

×Draw27%

Nantes29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SochauxExpected goals in this matchNantes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.04

Sochaux

1.35

Nantes

1.04

Sochaux creates 30% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 201 away

1.34

creates per match

0.96

1.12

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Sochaux

1.34

Nantes

0.96

allows per match

Sochaux

1.12

Nantes

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sochaux+0.00on par

Nantes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochaux ↓

Nantes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sochaux or draw

71%

Sochaux or Nantes

73%

Draw or Nantes

56%

Winning margin

Sochaux wins by 2+

20%

Nantes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sochaux 1+ goals

74%

Sochaux 2+ goals

39%

Sochaux 3+ goals

15%

Nantes 1+ goals

65%

Nantes 2+ goals

28%

Nantes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sochaux (draw refunded)

60%

Nantes (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochaux at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.12 · 76 matches

Nantes away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.36 · 201 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochaux attack 1.34 + Nantes defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Nantes attack 0.96 + Sochaux defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sochaux scores more

44%

level

27%

Nantes scores more

29%

Sochaux at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sochaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

S. Sunzu↳ S. Roudet

62'

S. Gakpé← A. Bedoya

64'

J. Veretout← L. Déaux

75'

M. Ilaimaharitra← E. Mayuka

77'

G. N'Koudou← V. Bessat

80'

P. Frau← R. Contout

86'

T. Doubaï← S. Prcić

Sochaux

Nantes

1

5

4

3

22

8

▼

Bessat

18

▼

Déaux

19

▼

12

11

9

1

5

25

31

⚽

Sunzu

27

Poujol

18

A

Roudet

29

Boumal

26

▼

Prcić

15

▼

Mayuka

11

▼

Contout

3

Ayew

75'▲M. Ilaimaharitra←▼E. Mayuka

80'▲P. Frau←▼R. Contout

86'▲T. Doubaï←▼S. Prcić

Sochaux substitutes

33Ilaimaharitra9Frau4Doubaï17Peybernes19Zouma20Butin30Camara

62'▲S. Gakpé←▼A. Bedoya

64'▲J. Veretout←▼L. Déaux

77'▲G. N'Koudou←▼V. Bessat

Nantes substitutes

13Gakpé25Veretout14N'Koudou16Zelazny24Alhadhur26Djidji33Touré