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Sochaux vs Jura Sud Foot — Coupe de France 2018

Sochaux
Sochaux
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jura Sud Foot
Jura Sud Foot
11/17/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade Auguste-Bonal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sochaux23%
×Draw19%
Jura Sud Foot57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sochaux
1.50
Jura Sud Foot
2.42

Jura Sud Foot creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sochaux
1.50
Jura Sud Foot
3.00

allows per match

Sochaux
1.83
Jura Sud Foot
1.50

finishing

Sochaux+0.00on par
Jura Sud Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochaux ↓

Jura Sud Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Sochaux or draw
43%
Sochaux or Jura Sud Foot
81%
Draw or Jura Sud Foot
77%

Winning margin

Sochaux wins by 2+
10%
Jura Sud Foot wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Sochaux 1+ goals
78%
Sochaux 2+ goals
44%
Sochaux 3+ goals
19%
Jura Sud Foot 1+ goals
91%
Jura Sud Foot 2+ goals
69%
Jura Sud Foot 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Sochaux (draw refunded)
29%
Jura Sud Foot (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochaux at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Jura Sud Foot away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochaux attack 1.50 + Jura Sud Foot defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Jura Sud Foot attack 3.00 + Sochaux defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sochaux scores more
23%
level
19%
Jura Sud Foot scores more
57%

Jura Sud Foot at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jura Sud Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sochaux vs Jura Sud Foot

Sochaux beat Jura Sud Foot 2-1 in Coupe de France on November 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Auguste-Bonal in Montbéliard.