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Sochaux vs Beziers — Ligue 2 2018

Sochaux
Sochaux
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Beziers
Beziers
8/31/2018Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 6Stade Bonal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sochaux46%
×Draw27%
Beziers27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sochaux
1.42
Beziers
1.02

Sochaux creates 39% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sochaux
1.22
Beziers
1.05

allows per match

Sochaux
0.98
Beziers
1.63

finishing

Sochaux+0.00on par
Beziers+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochaux ↓

Beziers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sochaux or draw
73%
Sochaux or Beziers
73%
Draw or Beziers
54%

Winning margin

Sochaux wins by 2+
22%
Beziers wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sochaux 1+ goals
76%
Sochaux 2+ goals
41%
Sochaux 3+ goals
17%
Beziers 1+ goals
64%
Beziers 2+ goals
27%
Beziers 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sochaux (draw refunded)
63%
Beziers (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochaux at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Beziers away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochaux attack 1.22 + Beziers defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Beziers attack 1.05 + Sochaux defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sochaux scores more
46%
level
27%
Beziers scores more
27%

Sochaux at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sochaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sochaux vs Beziers

Sochaux beat Beziers 1-0 in Ligue 2 on August 31, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Bonal in Montbeliard.