Sochaux 1–0 Arles: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Sochaux

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Arles

K. Toko Ekambi 10'

1/30/2015

Ligue 2 · Round 22Stade Auguste-Bonal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Sochaux46%

×Draw28%

Arles26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SochauxExpected goals in this matchArles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.93

Sochaux

1.33

Arles

0.93

Sochaux creates 43% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 76 away

1.23

creates per match

0.78

1.08

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Sochaux

1.23

Arles

0.78

allows per match

Sochaux

1.08

Arles

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sochaux+0.00on par

Arles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochaux ↓

Arles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sochaux or draw

74%

Sochaux or Arles

72%

Draw or Arles

54%

Winning margin

Sochaux wins by 2+

21%

Arles wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sochaux 1+ goals

74%

Sochaux 2+ goals

38%

Sochaux 3+ goals

15%

Arles 1+ goals

61%

Arles 2+ goals

24%

Arles 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sochaux (draw refunded)

64%

Arles (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochaux at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.08 · 158 matches

Arles away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochaux attack 1.23 + Arles defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Arles attack 0.78 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sochaux scores more

46%

level

28%

Arles scores more

26%

Sochaux at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sochaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

49'

59'

60'

63'

70'

B. Psaume← W. Domoraud

81'

T. Guerbert← E. Butin

88'

Larsen Toure

90'

Thomas Guerbert

90'

Florian Pinteaux

Possession

Statistics

SochauxArles

Overview

54%Possession46%

12Corners0

15Fouls21

Shots

9On Target2

3Off Target2

Passing

54%Possession46%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

15Fouls21

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards2

0Offsides1

Sochaux 1 – 0 Arles

Sochaux beat Arles 1-0 in Ligue 2 on January 30, 2015.

Goals: K. Toko Ekambi (10').

Sochaux dominated possession with 54% of the ball.

The match was played at Stade Auguste-Bonal in Montbéliard.

Sochaux vs Arles — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Statistics

Sochaux 1 – 0 Arles