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Soccer Intellectuals vs New Edubiase — Division One League 2025

Soccer Intellectuals
Soccer Intellectuals
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
New Edubiase
New Edubiase
11/23/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Soccer Intellectuals47%
×Draw32%
New Edubiase21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Soccer Intellectuals
1.10
New Edubiase
0.63

Soccer Intellectuals creates 75% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Soccer Intellectuals
1.00
New Edubiase
0.73

allows per match

Soccer Intellectuals
0.53
New Edubiase
1.20

finishing

Soccer Intellectuals+0.00on par
New Edubiase+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soccer Intellectuals ↓

New Edubiase →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Soccer Intellectuals or draw
79%
Soccer Intellectuals or New Edubiase
68%
Draw or New Edubiase
53%

Winning margin

Soccer Intellectuals wins by 2+
20%
New Edubiase wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Soccer Intellectuals 1+ goals
67%
Soccer Intellectuals 2+ goals
30%
Soccer Intellectuals 3+ goals
10%
New Edubiase 1+ goals
47%
New Edubiase 2+ goals
13%
New Edubiase 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Soccer Intellectuals (draw refunded)
69%
New Edubiase (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soccer Intellectuals at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

New Edubiase away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soccer Intellectuals attack 1.00 + New Edubiase defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

New Edubiase attack 0.73 + Soccer Intellectuals defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Soccer Intellectuals scores more
47%
level
32%
New Edubiase scores more
21%

Soccer Intellectuals at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Soccer Intellectuals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Soccer Intellectuals vs New Edubiase

Soccer Intellectuals and New Edubiase drew 0-0 in Division One League on November 23, 2025.