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Soccer Intellectuals vs Elmina Sharks — Division One League 2025

Soccer Intellectuals
Soccer Intellectuals
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
1/4/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Soccer Intellectuals49%
×Draw32%
Elmina Sharks19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Soccer Intellectuals
1.14
Elmina Sharks
0.60

Soccer Intellectuals creates 90% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Soccer Intellectuals
1.00
Elmina Sharks
0.67

allows per match

Soccer Intellectuals
0.53
Elmina Sharks
1.27

finishing

Soccer Intellectuals+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soccer Intellectuals ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Soccer Intellectuals or draw
81%
Soccer Intellectuals or Elmina Sharks
68%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
51%

Winning margin

Soccer Intellectuals wins by 2+
21%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Soccer Intellectuals 1+ goals
68%
Soccer Intellectuals 2+ goals
32%
Soccer Intellectuals 3+ goals
11%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
45%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
12%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Soccer Intellectuals (draw refunded)
72%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soccer Intellectuals at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soccer Intellectuals attack 1.00 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Elmina Sharks attack 0.67 + Soccer Intellectuals defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Soccer Intellectuals scores more
49%
level
32%
Elmina Sharks scores more
19%

Soccer Intellectuals at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Soccer Intellectuals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Soccer Intellectuals 1 – 0 Elmina Sharks

Soccer Intellectuals beat Elmina Sharks 1-0 in Division One League on January 4, 2026.