Soccer Intellectuals 2–2 Ebony FC: Result & Stats

Soccer Intellectuals

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ebony FC

12/21/2025

Division One League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Soccer Intellectuals47%

×Draw29%

Ebony FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Soccer IntellectualsExpected goals in this matchEbony FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.80

Soccer Intellectuals

1.27

Ebony FC

0.80

Soccer Intellectuals creates 59% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.00

creates per match

1.07

0.53

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Soccer Intellectuals

1.00

Ebony FC

1.07

allows per match

Soccer Intellectuals

0.53

Ebony FC

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Soccer Intellectuals+0.00on par

Ebony FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soccer Intellectuals ↓

Ebony FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Soccer Intellectuals or draw

77%

Soccer Intellectuals or Ebony FC

71%

Draw or Ebony FC

53%

Winning margin

Soccer Intellectuals wins by 2+

22%

Ebony FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Soccer Intellectuals 1+ goals

72%

Soccer Intellectuals 2+ goals

36%

Soccer Intellectuals 3+ goals

14%

Ebony FC 1+ goals

55%

Ebony FC 2+ goals

19%

Ebony FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Soccer Intellectuals (draw refunded)

67%

Ebony FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soccer Intellectuals at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Ebony FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soccer Intellectuals attack 1.00 + Ebony FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ebony FC attack 1.07 + Soccer Intellectuals defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Soccer Intellectuals scores more

47%

level

29%

Ebony FC scores more

23%

Soccer Intellectuals at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Soccer Intellectuals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff