Sobrance 1–0 Spišské Podhradie: Result & Stats

Sobrance

FT

1 – 0

Spišské Podhradie

9/12/2021

3. liga - East · East - 8Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sobrance60%

×Draw20%

Spišské Podhradie20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SobranceExpected goals in this matchSpišské Podhradie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.27

Sobrance

2.29

Spišské Podhradie

1.27

Sobrance creates 80% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 65 away

1.73

creates per match

0.80

1.73

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Sobrance

1.73

Spišské Podhradie

0.80

allows per match

Sobrance

1.73

Spišské Podhradie

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sobrance+0.00on par

Spišské Podhradie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sobrance ↓

Spišské Podhradie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Sobrance or draw

80%

Sobrance or Spišské Podhradie

80%

Draw or Spišské Podhradie

40%

Winning margin

Sobrance wins by 2+

38%

Spišské Podhradie wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sobrance 1+ goals

90%

Sobrance 2+ goals

66%

Sobrance 3+ goals

40%

Spišské Podhradie 1+ goals

72%

Spišské Podhradie 2+ goals

36%

Spišské Podhradie 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sobrance (draw refunded)

75%

Spišské Podhradie (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sobrance at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Spišské Podhradie away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.86 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sobrance attack 1.73 + Spišské Podhradie defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.29

Spišské Podhradie attack 0.80 + Sobrance defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sobrance scores more

60%

level

20%

Spišské Podhradie scores more

20%

Sobrance at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sobrance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff