Sobrance 3–4 Slávia TU Košice: Result & Stats

Sobrance

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Slávia TU Košice

3/13/2022

3. liga - East · East - 16Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sobrance39%

×Draw23%

Slávia TU Košice37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SobranceExpected goals in this matchSlávia TU Košice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.59

Sobrance

1.63

Slávia TU Košice

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

1.73

creates per match

1.45

1.73

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Sobrance

1.73

Slávia TU Košice

1.45

allows per match

Sobrance

1.73

Slávia TU Košice

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sobrance+0.00on par

Slávia TU Košice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sobrance ↓

Slávia TU Košice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sobrance or draw

63%

Sobrance or Slávia TU Košice

77%

Draw or Slávia TU Košice

61%

Winning margin

Sobrance wins by 2+

20%

Slávia TU Košice wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sobrance 1+ goals

80%

Sobrance 2+ goals

48%

Sobrance 3+ goals

22%

Slávia TU Košice 1+ goals

80%

Slávia TU Košice 2+ goals

47%

Slávia TU Košice 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sobrance (draw refunded)

51%

Slávia TU Košice (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sobrance at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Slávia TU Košice away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.52 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sobrance attack 1.73 + Slávia TU Košice defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.63

Slávia TU Košice attack 1.45 + Sobrance defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sobrance scores more

39%

level

23%

Slávia TU Košice scores more

37%

Sobrance at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sobrance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff