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Sobrance vs Mladosť Kalša — 3. liga - East 2020

Sobrance
Sobrance
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mladosť Kalša
Mladosť Kalša
3/27/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 18Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sobrance50%
×Draw20%
Mladosť Kalša30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sobrance
2.29
Mladosť Kalša
1.77

Sobrance creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sobrance
1.73
Mladosť Kalša
1.82

allows per match

Sobrance
1.73
Mladosť Kalša
2.86

finishing

Sobrance+0.00on par
Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sobrance ↓

Mladosť Kalša →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Sobrance or draw
70%
Sobrance or Mladosť Kalša
80%
Draw or Mladosť Kalša
50%

Winning margin

Sobrance wins by 2+
30%
Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sobrance 1+ goals
90%
Sobrance 2+ goals
66%
Sobrance 3+ goals
40%
Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals
83%
Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals
53%
Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Sobrance (draw refunded)
62%
Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sobrance at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Mladosť Kalša away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sobrance attack 1.73 + Mladosť Kalša defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.29

Mladosť Kalša attack 1.82 + Sobrance defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sobrance scores more
50%
level
20%
Mladosť Kalša scores more
30%

Sobrance at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sobrance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sobrance vs Mladosť Kalša

Sobrance beat Mladosť Kalša 4-0 in 3. liga - East on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance in Sobrance.