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Šobec Lesce vs Sava Kranj — 3. SNL - West 2020

Šobec Lesce
Šobec Lesce
FT
2 – 3
Sava Kranj
Sava Kranj
8/29/20203. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 3Štadion Na Žagi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Šobec Lesce29%
×Draw22%
Sava Kranj50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šobec Lesce
1.52
Sava Kranj
2.04

Sava Kranj creates 34% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 10 away

creates per match

Šobec Lesce
1.55
Sava Kranj
2.40

allows per match

Šobec Lesce
1.68
Sava Kranj
1.50

finishing

Šobec Lesce+0.00on par
Sava Kranj+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šobec Lesce ↓

Sava Kranj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Šobec Lesce or draw
50%
Šobec Lesce or Sava Kranj
78%
Draw or Sava Kranj
71%

Winning margin

Šobec Lesce wins by 2+
13%
Sava Kranj wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Šobec Lesce 1+ goals
78%
Šobec Lesce 2+ goals
45%
Šobec Lesce 3+ goals
20%
Sava Kranj 1+ goals
87%
Sava Kranj 2+ goals
60%
Sava Kranj 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Šobec Lesce (draw refunded)
37%
Sava Kranj (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šobec Lesce at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

Sava Kranj away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šobec Lesce attack 1.55 + Sava Kranj defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sava Kranj attack 2.40 + Šobec Lesce defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Šobec Lesce scores more
29%
level
22%
Sava Kranj scores more
50%

Sava Kranj at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sava Kranj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. SNL - West: Šobec Lesce 2–3 Sava Kranj

Sava Kranj beat Šobec Lesce 3-2 in 3. SNL - West on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Štadion Na Žagi in Lesce.