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Šobec Lesce vs Postojna — 3. SNL - West 2020

Šobec Lesce
Šobec Lesce
CANC
13:00
Postojna
Postojna
11/14/20203. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 14Štadion Na Žagi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Šobec Lesce49%
×Draw24%
Postojna27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šobec Lesce
1.72
Postojna
1.23

Šobec Lesce creates 40% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 9 away

creates per match

Šobec Lesce
1.55
Postojna
0.78

allows per match

Šobec Lesce
1.68
Postojna
1.89

finishing

Šobec Lesce+0.00on par
Postojna+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šobec Lesce ↓

Postojna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Šobec Lesce or draw
73%
Šobec Lesce or Postojna
76%
Draw or Postojna
51%

Winning margin

Šobec Lesce wins by 2+
26%
Postojna wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Šobec Lesce 1+ goals
82%
Šobec Lesce 2+ goals
51%
Šobec Lesce 3+ goals
25%
Postojna 1+ goals
71%
Postojna 2+ goals
35%
Postojna 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Šobec Lesce (draw refunded)
64%
Postojna (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šobec Lesce at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

Postojna away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šobec Lesce attack 1.55 + Postojna defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.72

Postojna attack 0.78 + Šobec Lesce defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Šobec Lesce scores more
49%
level
24%
Postojna scores more
27%

Šobec Lesce at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Šobec Lesce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Šobec Lesce vs Postojna — Match Preview

Šobec Lesce face Postojna on November 14, 2020 in this 3. SNL - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Šobec Lesce host Postojna at Štadion Na Žagi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.