SOA 2–0 Sporting Gagnoa: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

SOA

FT

2 – 0

Sporting Gagnoa

4/4/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 16Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

SOA39%

×Draw32%

Sporting Gagnoa29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SOAExpected goals in this matchSporting Gagnoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.85

SOA

1.04

Sporting Gagnoa

0.85

SOA creates 22% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 59 away

1.00

creates per match

0.92

0.79

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

SOA

1.00

Sporting Gagnoa

0.92

allows per match

SOA

0.79

Sporting Gagnoa

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SOA+0.00on par

Sporting Gagnoa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SOA ↓

Sporting Gagnoa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

SOA or draw

71%

SOA or Sporting Gagnoa

68%

Draw or Sporting Gagnoa

61%

Winning margin

SOA wins by 2+

15%

Sporting Gagnoa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SOA 1+ goals

65%

SOA 2+ goals

28%

SOA 3+ goals

9%

Sporting Gagnoa 1+ goals

57%

Sporting Gagnoa 2+ goals

21%

Sporting Gagnoa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

SOA (draw refunded)

57%

Sporting Gagnoa (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SOA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.79 · 91 matches

Sporting Gagnoa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SOA attack 1.00 + Sporting Gagnoa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Sporting Gagnoa attack 0.92 + SOA defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SOA scores more

39%

level

32%

Sporting Gagnoa scores more

29%

SOA at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff