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SOA vs Lys Sassandra — Ligue 1 2019

SOA
SOA
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Lys Sassandra
Lys Sassandra
3/9/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade Municipal de Yamoussoukro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

SOA39%
×Draw32%
Lys Sassandra29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SOA
1.04
Lys Sassandra
0.85

SOA creates 22% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 59 away

creates per match

SOA
1.00
Lys Sassandra
0.92

allows per match

SOA
0.79
Lys Sassandra
1.08

finishing

SOA+0.00on par
Lys Sassandra+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SOA ↓

Lys Sassandra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

SOA or draw
71%
SOA or Lys Sassandra
68%
Draw or Lys Sassandra
61%

Winning margin

SOA wins by 2+
15%
Lys Sassandra wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SOA 1+ goals
65%
SOA 2+ goals
28%
SOA 3+ goals
9%
Lys Sassandra 1+ goals
57%
Lys Sassandra 2+ goals
21%
Lys Sassandra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

SOA (draw refunded)
57%
Lys Sassandra (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SOA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.79 · 91 matches

Lys Sassandra away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SOA attack 1.00 + Lys Sassandra defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Lys Sassandra attack 0.92 + SOA defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SOA scores more
39%
level
32%
Lys Sassandra scores more
29%

SOA at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SOA vs Lys Sassandra

SOA beat Lys Sassandra 3-2 in Ligue 1 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Yamoussoukro in Yamoussoukro.