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SOA vs ASEC Mimosas — Ligue 1 2019

SOA
SOA
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
ASEC Mimosas
ASEC Mimosas
5/18/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 30Stade Charles Konan Banny de Yamoussoukro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

SOA27%
×Draw31%
ASEC Mimosas42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SOA
0.83
ASEC Mimosas
1.10

ASEC Mimosas creates 33% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 89 away

creates per match

SOA
1.00
ASEC Mimosas
1.42

allows per match

SOA
0.79
ASEC Mimosas
0.66

finishing

SOA+0.00on par
ASEC Mimosas+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SOA ↓

ASEC Mimosas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

SOA or draw
58%
SOA or ASEC Mimosas
69%
Draw or ASEC Mimosas
73%

Winning margin

SOA wins by 2+
9%
ASEC Mimosas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SOA 1+ goals
56%
SOA 2+ goals
20%
SOA 3+ goals
5%
ASEC Mimosas 1+ goals
67%
ASEC Mimosas 2+ goals
30%
ASEC Mimosas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SOA (draw refunded)
40%
ASEC Mimosas (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SOA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.79 · 91 matches

ASEC Mimosas away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.66 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SOA attack 1.00 + ASEC Mimosas defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.83

ASEC Mimosas attack 1.42 + SOA defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SOA scores more
27%
level
31%
ASEC Mimosas scores more
42%

ASEC Mimosas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ASEC Mimosas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SOA vs ASEC Mimosas

ASEC Mimosas beat SOA 2-1 in Ligue 1 on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Charles Konan Banny de Yamoussoukro in Yamoussoukro.