So Cal Union 2–3 San Diego Surf: Result & Stats

So Cal Union

2 – 3

San Diego Surf

5/27/2024

League #1116 · West - 3Sommers Bend Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

So Cal Union47%

×Draw22%

San Diego Surf31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

So Cal UnionExpected goals in this matchSan Diego Surf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.50

So Cal Union

1.88

San Diego Surf

1.50

So Cal Union creates 25% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

1.00

2.00

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

So Cal Union

3.00

San Diego Surf

1.00

allows per match

So Cal Union

2.00

San Diego Surf

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

So Cal Union+0.00on par

San Diego Surf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

So Cal Union ↓

San Diego Surf →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

So Cal Union or draw

69%

So Cal Union or San Diego Surf

78%

Draw or San Diego Surf

53%

Winning margin

So Cal Union wins by 2+

26%

San Diego Surf wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

So Cal Union 1+ goals

85%

So Cal Union 2+ goals

56%

So Cal Union 3+ goals

29%

San Diego Surf 1+ goals

78%

San Diego Surf 2+ goals

44%

San Diego Surf 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

So Cal Union (draw refunded)

60%

San Diego Surf (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

So Cal Union at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

San Diego Surf away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

So Cal Union attack 3.00 + San Diego Surf defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

San Diego Surf attack 1.00 + So Cal Union defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

So Cal Union scores more

47%

level

22%

San Diego Surf scores more

31%

So Cal Union at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "So Cal Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff