So Cal Union 3–1 LA Surf: Result & Stats

So Cal Union

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

LA Surf

6/30/2025

League #1116 · West - 14Sommers Bend Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

So Cal Union58%

×Draw19%

LA Surf23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

So Cal UnionExpected goals in this matchLA Surf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.50

So Cal Union

2.44

LA Surf

1.50

So Cal Union creates 63% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

3.00

creates per match

1.00

2.00

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

So Cal Union

3.00

LA Surf

1.00

allows per match

So Cal Union

2.00

LA Surf

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

So Cal Union+0.00on par

LA Surf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

So Cal Union ↓

LA Surf →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

So Cal Union or draw

77%

So Cal Union or LA Surf

81%

Draw or LA Surf

42%

Winning margin

So Cal Union wins by 2+

37%

LA Surf wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

So Cal Union 1+ goals

91%

So Cal Union 2+ goals

70%

So Cal Union 3+ goals

43%

LA Surf 1+ goals

78%

LA Surf 2+ goals

44%

LA Surf 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

So Cal Union (draw refunded)

72%

LA Surf (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

So Cal Union at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

LA Surf away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

So Cal Union attack 3.00 + LA Surf defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.44

LA Surf attack 1.00 + So Cal Union defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

So Cal Union scores more

58%

level

19%

LA Surf scores more

23%

So Cal Union at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "So Cal Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff