So Cal Union 4–2 Albion San Diego W: Result & Stats

So Cal Union

4 – 2

Albion San Diego W

6/28/2025

League #1116

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

So Cal Union66%

×Draw16%

Albion San Diego W18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

So Cal UnionExpected goals in this matchAlbion San Diego W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.10

1.60

So Cal Union

3.10

Albion San Diego W

1.60

So Cal Union creates 94% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

3.00

creates per match

1.20

2.00

allows per match

3.20

creates per match

So Cal Union

3.00

Albion San Diego W

1.20

allows per match

So Cal Union

2.00

Albion San Diego W

3.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

So Cal Union+0.00on par

Albion San Diego W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

So Cal Union ↓

Albion San Diego W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

So Cal Union or draw

82%

So Cal Union or Albion San Diego W

84%

Draw or Albion San Diego W

34%

Winning margin

So Cal Union wins by 2+

47%

Albion San Diego W wins by 2+

Team goals

So Cal Union 1+ goals

95%

So Cal Union 2+ goals

81%

So Cal Union 3+ goals

58%

Albion San Diego W 1+ goals

80%

Albion San Diego W 2+ goals

47%

Albion San Diego W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

So Cal Union (draw refunded)

79%

Albion San Diego W (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

So Cal Union at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Albion San Diego W away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

So Cal Union attack 3.00 + Albion San Diego W defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 3.10

Albion San Diego W attack 1.20 + So Cal Union defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

So Cal Union scores more

66%

level

16%

Albion San Diego W scores more

18%

So Cal Union at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "So Cal Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff