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SNL vs Santos — Eerste Divisie 2019

SNL
SNL
FT
1 – 1
Santos
Santos
5/27/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 18Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

SNL57%
×Draw19%
Santos24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SNL
2.56
Santos
1.65

SNL creates 55% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

creates per match

SNL
1.39
Santos
0.93

allows per match

SNL
2.36
Santos
3.74

finishing

SNL+0.00on par
Santos+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SNL ↓

Santos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

SNL or draw
76%
SNL or Santos
81%
Draw or Santos
43%

Winning margin

SNL wins by 2+
37%
Santos wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SNL 1+ goals
92%
SNL 2+ goals
72%
SNL 3+ goals
46%
Santos 1+ goals
81%
Santos 2+ goals
49%
Santos 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

SNL (draw refunded)
70%
Santos (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SNL at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.36 · 28 matches

Santos away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SNL attack 1.39 + Santos defence 3.74 → ÷2 → 2.56

Santos attack 0.93 + SNL defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

SNL scores more
57%
level
19%
Santos scores more
24%

SNL at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "SNL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SNL 1 – 1 Santos

SNL and Santos drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.