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SNL vs Notch — Eerste Divisie 2019

SNL
SNL
FT
2 – 2
Notch
Notch
3/12/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 9Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

SNL27%
×Draw21%
Notch52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SNL
1.44
Notch
2.06

Notch creates 43% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 58 away

creates per match

SNL
1.39
Notch
1.76

allows per match

SNL
2.36
Notch
1.48

finishing

SNL+0.00on par
Notch+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SNL ↓

Notch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

SNL or draw
48%
SNL or Notch
79%
Draw or Notch
73%

Winning margin

SNL wins by 2+
12%
Notch wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

SNL 1+ goals
76%
SNL 2+ goals
42%
SNL 3+ goals
18%
Notch 1+ goals
87%
Notch 2+ goals
61%
Notch 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

SNL (draw refunded)
34%
Notch (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SNL at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.36 · 28 matches

Notch away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.48 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SNL attack 1.39 + Notch defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Notch attack 1.76 + SNL defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SNL scores more
27%
level
21%
Notch scores more
52%

Notch at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Notch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: SNL 2–2 Notch

SNL and Notch drew 2-2 in Eerste Divisie on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.