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SNL vs FC Inter Wanica — Eerste Divisie 2019

SNL
SNL
FT
2 – 1
FC Inter Wanica
FC Inter Wanica
7/9/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 23Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

SNL45%
×Draw21%
FC Inter Wanica34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SNL
2.04
FC Inter Wanica
1.76

SNL creates 16% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 60 away

creates per match

SNL
1.39
FC Inter Wanica
1.17

allows per match

SNL
2.36
FC Inter Wanica
2.68

finishing

SNL+0.00on par
FC Inter Wanica+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SNL ↓

FC Inter Wanica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

SNL or draw
66%
SNL or FC Inter Wanica
79%
Draw or FC Inter Wanica
55%

Winning margin

SNL wins by 2+
25%
FC Inter Wanica wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SNL 1+ goals
87%
SNL 2+ goals
60%
SNL 3+ goals
33%
FC Inter Wanica 1+ goals
83%
FC Inter Wanica 2+ goals
52%
FC Inter Wanica 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

SNL (draw refunded)
57%
FC Inter Wanica (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SNL at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.36 · 28 matches

FC Inter Wanica away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.68 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SNL attack 1.39 + FC Inter Wanica defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.04

FC Inter Wanica attack 1.17 + SNL defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SNL scores more
45%
level
21%
FC Inter Wanica scores more
34%

SNL at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SNL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: SNL 2–1 FC Inter Wanica

SNL beat FC Inter Wanica 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on July 9, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.