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Snina vs Veľké Revištia — 3. liga - East 2020

Snina
Snina
FT
3 – 2
Veľké Revištia
Veľké Revištia
8/2/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 1Futbalový štadión Snina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Snina77%
×Draw14%
Veľké Revištia9%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Snina
2.80
Veľké Revištia
0.86

Snina creates 226% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 8 away

creates per match

Snina
2.36
Veľké Revištia
0.63

allows per match

Snina
1.09
Veľké Revištia
3.25

finishing

Snina+0.00on par
Veľké Revištia+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Snina ↓

Veľké Revištia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Snina or draw
91%
Snina or Veľké Revištia
86%
Draw or Veľké Revištia
23%

Winning margin

Snina wins by 2+
56%
Veľké Revištia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Snina 1+ goals
94%
Snina 2+ goals
76%
Snina 3+ goals
52%
Veľké Revištia 1+ goals
58%
Veľké Revištia 2+ goals
21%
Veľké Revištia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Snina (draw refunded)
90%
Veľké Revištia (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Snina at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

Veľké Revištia away — creates 0.63, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Snina attack 2.36 + Veľké Revištia defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.80

Veľké Revištia attack 0.63 + Snina defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Snina scores more
77%
level
14%
Veľké Revištia scores more
9%

Snina at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Snina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Snina 3–2 Veľké Revištia

Snina beat Veľké Revištia 3-2 in 3. liga - East on August 2, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Snina in Snina.