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Snina vs Stará Ľubovňa — 3. liga - East 2020

Snina
Snina
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stará Ľubovňa
Stará Ľubovňa
8/20/20233. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 3Futbalový štadión Snina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Snina55%
×Draw21%
Stará Ľubovňa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Snina
2.08
Stará Ľubovňa
1.29

Snina creates 61% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 14 away

creates per match

Snina
2.36
Stará Ľubovňa
1.50

allows per match

Snina
1.09
Stará Ľubovňa
1.79

finishing

Snina+0.00on par
Stará Ľubovňa+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Snina ↓

Stará Ľubovňa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Snina or draw
77%
Snina or Stará Ľubovňa
79%
Draw or Stará Ľubovňa
45%

Winning margin

Snina wins by 2+
33%
Stará Ľubovňa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Snina 1+ goals
87%
Snina 2+ goals
61%
Snina 3+ goals
34%
Stará Ľubovňa 1+ goals
72%
Stará Ľubovňa 2+ goals
37%
Stará Ľubovňa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Snina (draw refunded)
70%
Stará Ľubovňa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Snina at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

Stará Ľubovňa away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Snina attack 2.36 + Stará Ľubovňa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.08

Stará Ľubovňa attack 1.50 + Snina defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Snina scores more
55%
level
21%
Stará Ľubovňa scores more
23%

Snina at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Snina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Snina vs Stará Ľubovňa

Snina beat Stará Ľubovňa 4-0 in 3. liga - East on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Snina in Snina.