Snina 4–0 Sobrance: Result & Stats | 3. liga - East

Snina

FT

4 – 0

Sobrance

9/5/2021

3. liga - East · East - 7Futbalový štadión Snina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Snina71%

×Draw17%

Sobrance12%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SninaExpected goals in this matchSobrance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

0.91

Snina

2.44

Sobrance

0.91

Snina creates 168% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 15 away

2.36

creates per match

0.73

1.09

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Snina

2.36

Sobrance

0.73

allows per match

Snina

1.09

Sobrance

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Snina+0.00on par

Sobrance+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Snina ↓

Sobrance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Snina or draw

88%

Snina or Sobrance

83%

Draw or Sobrance

29%

Winning margin

Snina wins by 2+

48%

Sobrance wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Snina 1+ goals

91%

Snina 2+ goals

70%

Snina 3+ goals

43%

Sobrance 1+ goals

60%

Sobrance 2+ goals

23%

Sobrance 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Snina (draw refunded)

85%

Sobrance (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Snina at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

Sobrance away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Snina attack 2.36 + Sobrance defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.44

Sobrance attack 0.73 + Snina defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Snina scores more

71%

level

17%

Sobrance scores more

12%

Snina at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Snina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff