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Snina vs Slovan Giraltovce — 3. liga - East 2020

Snina
Snina
CANC
15:00
Slovan Giraltovce
Slovan Giraltovce
6/20/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Snina72%
×Draw17%
Slovan Giraltovce11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Snina
2.35
Slovan Giraltovce
0.80

Snina creates 194% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 38 away

creates per match

Snina
2.36
Slovan Giraltovce
0.50

allows per match

Snina
1.09
Slovan Giraltovce
2.34

finishing

Snina+0.00on par
Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Snina ↓

Slovan Giraltovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Snina or draw
89%
Snina or Slovan Giraltovce
83%
Draw or Slovan Giraltovce
28%

Winning margin

Snina wins by 2+
48%
Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Snina 1+ goals
90%
Snina 2+ goals
68%
Snina 3+ goals
41%
Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals
55%
Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals
19%
Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Snina (draw refunded)
87%
Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Snina at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

Slovan Giraltovce away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Snina attack 2.36 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.35

Slovan Giraltovce attack 0.50 + Snina defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Snina scores more
72%
level
17%
Slovan Giraltovce scores more
11%

Snina at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Snina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Snina host Slovan Giraltovce

June 20, 2021: Snina take on Slovan Giraltovce in 3. liga - East. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.