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Snina vs Pokrok Krompachy — 3. liga - East 2020

Snina
Snina
CANC
13:30
Pokrok Krompachy
Pokrok Krompachy
4/4/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 19Futbalový štadión Snina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Snina80%
×Draw13%
Pokrok Krompachy8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Snina
3.00
Pokrok Krompachy
0.85

Snina creates 253% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 23 away

creates per match

Snina
2.36
Pokrok Krompachy
0.61

allows per match

Snina
1.09
Pokrok Krompachy
3.65

finishing

Snina+0.00on par
Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Snina ↓

Pokrok Krompachy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Snina or draw
92%
Snina or Pokrok Krompachy
87%
Draw or Pokrok Krompachy
20%

Winning margin

Snina wins by 2+
60%
Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Snina 1+ goals
95%
Snina 2+ goals
79%
Snina 3+ goals
56%
Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals
57%
Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals
21%
Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Snina (draw refunded)
91%
Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Snina at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

Pokrok Krompachy away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Snina attack 2.36 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 3.00

Pokrok Krompachy attack 0.61 + Snina defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Snina scores more
80%
level
13%
Pokrok Krompachy scores more
8%

Snina at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Snina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Snina face Pokrok Krompachy (3. liga - East)

3. liga - East returns with Snina hosting Pokrok Krompachy. Match starts April 4, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Snina host Pokrok Krompachy at Futbalový štadión Snina.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.