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Snina vs Mladosť Kalša — 3. liga - East 2020

Snina
Snina
FT
1 – 2
Mladosť Kalša
Mladosť Kalša
9/6/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 7Futbalový štadión Snina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Snina62%
×Draw18%
Mladosť Kalša20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Snina
2.61
Mladosť Kalša
1.46

Snina creates 79% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 22 away

creates per match

Snina
2.36
Mladosť Kalša
1.82

allows per match

Snina
1.09
Mladosť Kalša
2.86

finishing

Snina+0.00on par
Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Snina ↓

Mladosť Kalša →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Snina or draw
80%
Snina or Mladosť Kalša
82%
Draw or Mladosť Kalša
38%

Winning margin

Snina wins by 2+
41%
Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Snina 1+ goals
93%
Snina 2+ goals
73%
Snina 3+ goals
47%
Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals
77%
Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals
43%
Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Snina (draw refunded)
75%
Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Snina at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

Mladosť Kalša away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Snina attack 2.36 + Mladosť Kalša defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.61

Mladosť Kalša attack 1.82 + Snina defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Snina scores more
62%
level
18%
Mladosť Kalša scores more
20%

Snina at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Snina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Snina vs Mladosť Kalša

Mladosť Kalša beat Snina 2-1 in 3. liga - East on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Snina in Snina.