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Snina vs Fiľakovo — 3. liga - East 2020

Snina
Snina
FT
4 – 0
Fiľakovo
Fiľakovo
3/12/20233. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 17Futbalový štadión Snina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Snina63%
×Draw20%
Fiľakovo17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Snina
2.15
Fiľakovo
1.02

Snina creates 111% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 44 away

creates per match

Snina
2.36
Fiľakovo
0.95

allows per match

Snina
1.09
Fiľakovo
1.93

finishing

Snina+0.00on par
Fiľakovo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Snina ↓

Fiľakovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Snina or draw
83%
Snina or Fiľakovo
80%
Draw or Fiľakovo
37%

Winning margin

Snina wins by 2+
39%
Fiľakovo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Snina 1+ goals
88%
Snina 2+ goals
63%
Snina 3+ goals
36%
Fiľakovo 1+ goals
64%
Fiľakovo 2+ goals
27%
Fiľakovo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Snina (draw refunded)
79%
Fiľakovo (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Snina at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

Fiľakovo away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Snina attack 2.36 + Fiľakovo defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.15

Fiľakovo attack 0.95 + Snina defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Snina scores more
63%
level
20%
Fiľakovo scores more
17%

Snina at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Snina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Snina 4–0 Fiľakovo

Snina beat Fiľakovo 4-0 in 3. liga - East on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Snina in Snina.