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Snina vs Družstevník Plavnica — 3. liga - East 2020

Snina
Snina
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Družstevník Plavnica
Družstevník Plavnica
6/6/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 14Futbalový štadión Snina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Snina64%
×Draw19%
Družstevník Plavnica17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Snina
2.34
Družstevník Plavnica
1.13

Snina creates 107% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 6 away

creates per match

Snina
2.36
Družstevník Plavnica
1.17

allows per match

Snina
1.09
Družstevník Plavnica
2.33

finishing

Snina+0.00on par
Družstevník Plavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Snina ↓

Družstevník Plavnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Snina or draw
83%
Snina or Družstevník Plavnica
81%
Draw or Družstevník Plavnica
36%

Winning margin

Snina wins by 2+
42%
Družstevník Plavnica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Snina 1+ goals
90%
Snina 2+ goals
67%
Snina 3+ goals
41%
Družstevník Plavnica 1+ goals
68%
Družstevník Plavnica 2+ goals
31%
Družstevník Plavnica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Snina (draw refunded)
79%
Družstevník Plavnica (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Snina at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

Družstevník Plavnica away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Snina attack 2.36 + Družstevník Plavnica defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.34

Družstevník Plavnica attack 1.17 + Snina defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Snina scores more
64%
level
19%
Družstevník Plavnica scores more
17%

Snina at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Snina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Snina 3–0 Družstevník Plavnica

Snina beat Družstevník Plavnica 3-0 in 3. liga - East on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Snina in Snina.