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Snina vs Dolný Kubín — 3. liga - East 2020

Snina
Snina
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dolný Kubín
Dolný Kubín
10/13/20243. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 11Futbalový štadión Snina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Snina60%
×Draw20%
Dolný Kubín20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Snina
2.15
Dolný Kubín
1.15

Snina creates 87% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 15 away

creates per match

Snina
2.36
Dolný Kubín
1.20

allows per match

Snina
1.09
Dolný Kubín
1.93

finishing

Snina+0.00on par
Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Snina ↓

Dolný Kubín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Snina or draw
80%
Snina or Dolný Kubín
80%
Draw or Dolný Kubín
40%

Winning margin

Snina wins by 2+
37%
Dolný Kubín wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Snina 1+ goals
88%
Snina 2+ goals
63%
Snina 3+ goals
36%
Dolný Kubín 1+ goals
68%
Dolný Kubín 2+ goals
32%
Dolný Kubín 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Snina (draw refunded)
75%
Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Snina at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

Dolný Kubín away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Snina attack 2.36 + Dolný Kubín defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.15

Dolný Kubín attack 1.20 + Snina defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Snina scores more
60%
level
20%
Dolný Kubín scores more
20%

Snina at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Snina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Snina 2–0 Dolný Kubín

Snina beat Dolný Kubín 2-0 in 3. liga - East on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Snina in Snina.