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SNIM vs Toulde — Premier League 2020

SNIM
SNIM
FT
2 – 0
Toulde
Toulde
2/8/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Stade Municipal de Nouadhibou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

SNIM60%
×Draw25%
Toulde15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SNIM
1.58
Toulde
0.65

SNIM creates 143% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 14 away

creates per match

SNIM
0.96
Toulde
0.43

allows per match

SNIM
0.87
Toulde
2.21

finishing

SNIM+0.00on par
Toulde+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SNIM ↓

Toulde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SNIM or draw
85%
SNIM or Toulde
75%
Draw or Toulde
40%

Winning margin

SNIM wins by 2+
32%
Toulde wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

SNIM 1+ goals
79%
SNIM 2+ goals
47%
SNIM 3+ goals
21%
Toulde 1+ goals
48%
Toulde 2+ goals
14%
Toulde 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

SNIM (draw refunded)
80%
Toulde (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SNIM at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.87 · 78 matches

Toulde away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SNIM attack 0.96 + Toulde defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.58

Toulde attack 0.43 + SNIM defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

SNIM scores more
60%
level
25%
Toulde scores more
15%

SNIM at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "SNIM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SNIM 2 – 0 Toulde

SNIM beat Toulde 2-0 in Premier League on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Nouadhibou in Nouadhibou.