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SNIM vs Sahel — Premier League 2020

SNIM
SNIM
FT
0 – 1
Sahel
Sahel
3/13/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

SNIM35%
×Draw34%
Sahel30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SNIM
0.89
Sahel
0.80

SNIM creates 11% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 11 away

creates per match

SNIM
0.96
Sahel
0.73

allows per match

SNIM
0.87
Sahel
0.82

finishing

SNIM+0.00on par
Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SNIM ↓

Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

SNIM or draw
70%
SNIM or Sahel
66%
Draw or Sahel
65%

Winning margin

SNIM wins by 2+
12%
Sahel wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SNIM 1+ goals
59%
SNIM 2+ goals
22%
SNIM 3+ goals
6%
Sahel 1+ goals
55%
Sahel 2+ goals
19%
Sahel 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

SNIM (draw refunded)
54%
Sahel (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SNIM at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.87 · 78 matches

Sahel away — creates 0.73, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SNIM attack 0.96 + Sahel defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.89

Sahel attack 0.73 + SNIM defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

SNIM scores more
35%
level
34%
Sahel scores more
30%

SNIM at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "SNIM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: SNIM 0–1 Sahel

Sahel beat SNIM 1-0 in Premier League on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.