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SMS Łódź U18 vs Warta Poznań U18 — Central Youth League 2020

SMS Łódź U18
SMS Łódź U18
FT
1 – 2
Warta Poznań U18
Warta Poznań U18
8/21/2021Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

SMS Łódź U1847%
×Draw23%
Warta Poznań U1830%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SMS Łódź U18
1.75
Warta Poznań U18
1.36

SMS Łódź U18 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

SMS Łódź U18
1.23
Warta Poznań U18
1.53

allows per match

SMS Łódź U18
1.20
Warta Poznań U18
2.27

finishing

SMS Łódź U18+0.00on par
Warta Poznań U18+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SMS Łódź U18 ↓

Warta Poznań U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SMS Łódź U18 or draw
70%
SMS Łódź U18 or Warta Poznań U18
77%
Draw or Warta Poznań U18
53%

Winning margin

SMS Łódź U18 wins by 2+
25%
Warta Poznań U18 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SMS Łódź U18 1+ goals
83%
SMS Łódź U18 2+ goals
52%
SMS Łódź U18 3+ goals
25%
Warta Poznań U18 1+ goals
74%
Warta Poznań U18 2+ goals
39%
Warta Poznań U18 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

SMS Łódź U18 (draw refunded)
61%
Warta Poznań U18 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SMS Łódź U18 at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Warta Poznań U18 away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SMS Łódź U18 attack 1.23 + Warta Poznań U18 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.75

Warta Poznań U18 attack 1.53 + SMS Łódź U18 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SMS Łódź U18 scores more
47%
level
23%
Warta Poznań U18 scores more
30%

SMS Łódź U18 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SMS Łódź U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SMS Łódź U18 vs Warta Poznań U18

Warta Poznań U18 beat SMS Łódź U18 2-1 in Central Youth League on August 21, 2021.